Dr. Yahya Al-Aridi
In addition to its preoccupation with the Captagon and robbing the millions of its corrupt agents to survive financially, the Assad regime is busy reformulating its “Baathist” party in order to be more professional in fighting every Syrian who mentions the “unity” or “freedom” of the Syrian people, using the “technocratic brigades” and not the “Baathist brigades.” On his agenda is the rearrangement of the “security” services, reducing the Syrian army, and declaring that the mission of this army is “fighting terrorism.”
The Assad regime is now focusing on administrative and perhaps ministerial arrangements accompanied by what outsiders might call “changing behavior” or “fighting corruption,” keeping the story of Captagon and drugs as a blackmail card to survive economically and pressure Arab countries. It is now saying to its masters: “We have a pragmatic mind capable of ideological turns; just come to the table, we will do whatever you want, and we only want to guarantee the presidency in any upcoming arrangement.”
The regime’s main concern now is to disavow the consequences of October 7, and what some of the arms and militias of its protectors, the Mullahs, are doing, even if it takes providing those who have the say in the “service contracts” and target the Iranian militias with some intelligence “information” to prove innocence of the Palestinian act ; the regime will not hesitate to do so..
The regime’s media presents the news of America or Israel targeting sites of Assad’s ally and protectors, the Mullahs of Iran as a spectator. Its mouthpieces say: “Israeli aircraft targeted the residences of Iranian advisors…” as if it is congratulating them on hitting the targets accurately. This is practically the case of a gang whose fate has become an existential threat. Either it sells its partners, or makes it easier for the other to kill them. The goal of the “regime” is the chair, even if it is on skulls, and the goal of the occupier is the success of its project, even if Syria and its people are annihilated.
The Assad regime feels a state of reassurance towards the international community. It realizes that if it compares itself to any international gang that did a hundred times less than what Assad did, his destiny will be eradication. Historically, the regime exterminated the city of Hamah,. It conducted chemical experiments on prisoners in the prison of Palmyra,it killed Rafik Hariri, the Prime Minister of an independent state, It tried to assassinate Mudar Badran, Prime Minister of Jordan in the 1980s, The Assad regime assassinated Ali Tantawi’s daughter in the heart of Germany,. It opened Syria to militias targeting Israel,; It killed an American journalist, He brought explosives into Lebanon that involved a Lebanese minister, Recently, thousands of Syrians were killed in his detention centers under torture – and their photos were documented – Then he opened the area to the Captagon. All that was being perpetrated without any accountability and with almost everyone being filthy silent.
Despite the “Assad regime’s” capabilities over the years to emerge through the “hole of a needle” – as they say – its options are almost non-existent. Militarily, it lives on the protection of Russia and Iran, who, themselves need protection. Economically, it lives on Captagon and cnfisgating the millions and thefts of corrupt “businessmen”. Security-wise, its members do not know when the shot comes morally through a snitch or a report, or physically through a silent gun. Moreover, ISIS now may serve everyone except the Assad regime, due to the regime’s blatant exposure as its creator and sponsor. Above all, the Assad regime now can not present its credentials to any country without Iranian approval ; because, Iran is in full control of its destiny. Its only option is a complete submission to Israel ; the thing which will do nothing but expedite its complete collapse
In summary, Assad’s inner house is now so fragile and about to fall. Its only salvation is to disengage from Iran. However, living with Iran is impossible, so is leaving it. It is “the rock-and-the- hard-place” story.
A new Syrian revolutionary movement, such as the one we are witnessing in Suwayda, can present a consensual alternative Syrian model capable of correcting a high-value geopolitical path such as Syria. This model ends dependency on Iran, and prevents Syrian territory from becoming a logistical operational backspace for arms affiliated with Iran. We have to know the extent of this positive impact not only on Syria, but Lebanon, Iraq, and even Yemen, as a group that serves the Iranian agenda.
The alternative model undermines the tyrannical regime’s control of the internal scene. The option of re-dealing with this regime is reduced even if it tries to present submissive compliance rules to renew its service contract. Thus, the analogy becomes between two models: – an old regime that became corrupt and failed due to rogue alliance shunned by its people and the world in trying to renew its credentials, on the one hand ; and – a cohesive general Syrian movement that opens the door to sustainable peace.
