Samir Salha – Syria TV
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reaction to the visit of US Ambassador Jake Flick to the six-party candidate in the presidential elections, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, was very harsh. “You stick to your limits and the doors are closed to you.” However, Erdogan’s message is originally to the US administration itself, which Ankara accuses of interfering in the elections before it is for the ambassador.
The Turkish president has not forgotten Joe Biden’s words during the latter’s election campaigns, as he declares that Washington must support the Turkish opposition in confronting Erdogan so that it can confront and defeat him. Therefore, we saw Erdogan ascending against Washington by saying, “In these elections, we must teach America a lesson.”
On another front, it seems publicly that the divergence in positions and options between Russia and the Syrian regime regarding the Turkish elections exists in terms of Damascus favoring dialogue with the Turkish opposition forces that it wants to see in a position of leadership after the next May 14, especially after adopting a policy completely different from what the leaders of the Justice Party say. In dealing with the Syrian file.
As for Moscow, it prefers that the Justice Party remain at the helm of power after all the steps of bilateral and regional coordination in strategic files that concern the two countries. The reality on the ground says that what Moscow wants is what the regime will fully adhere to, as happened in the quadripartite table meetings a few days ago, where Bashar al-Assad abandoned all the preconditions he had hinted at that he demanded that Ankara implement before going to the Russian capital, and he found himself In front of the table with a decision from Putin that cannot be deviated from.
Opinion poll numbers say that the share of foreign policy in this decision while it is on the way to the fund will not exceed 4 percent, unlike the internal files
Inevitably, the file of the crisis in Syria and its repercussions on the Turkish interior, Turkish relations with the West, specifically with America and Europe, then the steps of wide openness to Russia, and then campaigns to review policies in the region and normalization with many Arab and regional capitals will have an impact on the decision of the Turkish voter. However, opinion poll numbers say that the share of foreign policy in this decision while it is on the way to the fund will not exceed 4 percent, unlike the internal files that will have a direct impact on the results, such as the earthquake disaster and the way to deal with it, and the economic and living situation, and after that comes the issue of the war on terrorism. Asylum in Turkey and then issues of freedoms.
Ankara’s escalation against Washington has not stopped in the past two years due to bilateral and regional differences. The Turkish response has always come through more openness and coordination with Moscow. What would the leaders of the Justice Party say in the event that the leaders of the Turkish opposition described the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Ankara at this time as a message of support and coordination for the political authority in the midst of this atmosphere? The most important question is, will Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the inauguration ceremonies of the “Akkuyu” nuclear reactor in Mersin at the end of this month, which Moscow participated in building? Would this be considered an “election gift” presented to the Justice Party weeks before going to the boxes? Where is Washington in all of this?Ankara is sticking to the four-party table supervised by Moscow, through which it wants to facilitate the birth of a new path in dealing with the Syrian file. The regime delegation in Damascus was the first to arrive in the Russian capital. Does this mean that Moscow and Damascus decided to stand by the Justice Party in the electoral process by giving it political stances that increase its chances of winning?
Perhaps Putin is interested in Erdogan winning the elections, because dialogue with him will be easier than opening a new page with the opposition forces, which will have many heads, ideas, and positions. However, the issue will not go beyond the case of wishful thinking, because otherwise it may reflect negatively on the course of Turkish-Russian relations in the event that “the ax falls on the head” and the six-party alliance wins.
Putin’s presence in Mersin two weeks before going to the boxes in Turkey will leave him with a dilemma after the results are announced and the opposition’s victory scenario. Is he ready to bear the repercussions of a crisis of this kind, when he needs Turkey by his side as a regional and international outlet at this time because of the war in Ukraine?
Even if a lot was said inside Turkey about foreign attempts to interfere in the issue of the elections, Washington and Moscow will try to adopt a cautious policy in dealing with the issue and will work to stay away from the scene. Contrary to that, it means risking exposing their relationship with Turkey to a difficult and critical stage after the announcement of the results, whether Erdogan and his party win or the opposition forces win. Even if a lot was said inside Turkey about foreign attempts to interfere in the issue of the elections, Washington and Moscow will try to adopt a cautious policy in dealing with the issue and will work to stay away from the scene. Contrary to that, it means risking exposing their relationship with Turkey to a difficult and critical stage after the announcement of the results, whether Erdogan and his party win or the opposition forces win.
Russia, which adopted a pragmatic and practical policy with the Turkish side decades ago, will not expose this policy to a diplomatic setback that it does not need today, and it will take into account the calculations of the return line in its relationship with the opposition, which also has a chance of winning the elections.
As much as the Justice Party will try to hold Washington and some Western capitals responsible for any loss in the elections, the Turkish opposition forces will also move to hold Moscow and the regime in Damascus responsible for its defeat after a month. It is not in the interest of the Russian and Syrian parties, nor the two competing parties within Turkey, that this kind of possibility emerges.
The leaders of the Justice and Development Party themselves will not engage in a political adventure of this kind by trying to play the card of Moscow and Damascus, which warns Washington of any interference in the elections. Do the leaders of the Justice Party not know that the issue of moving the stones of Russia and the Syrian regime in the issue of elections may be negatively reflected and that no one has guarantees about how the Turkish voter will behave?
Outsiders closely follow the developments of the electoral scene in Turkey for more than one reason: There is the Turkish regional location and role. There are Turkey’s relations with the countries of the region and the overlap of many strategic files, and there is concern about the post-election phase and its results and the way to deal with it for many capitals.
The course and results of this time are the most difficult, because the repercussions of the result will be as painful for the winning party as they will be for the winning party
The regional and international capitals are well aware that it is not the first time that the leaders of the Justice and Development Party stand with concern and anticipation in front of the boxes. But the course and results of this time are the most difficult, because the repercussions of the result will be as painful for the winning party as it will be for the winning party. The game of partisan alliances and satisfying partners carries with it a new situation, which means that the Justice and Development Party will no longer be alone in the seat of power. It also means that the partners of the six-party table will have an impossible task in protecting the sharing of influence, positions, and internal and external decisions. No one from the outside is interested in entering into a sensitive and complex discussion of this kind on the eve of the fourteenth of May.
