On November 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) called “Oreshnik,” claiming it represents a significant advancement in Russia’s military capabilities. The missile was used to strike the city of Dnipro, Ukraine, amid ongoing tensions following Kyiv’s use of Western-supplied long-range missiles on Russian territory.
A “New” Missile or a Rebrand?
While Putin described the Oreshnik as a groundbreaking weapon, experts and Ukrainian intelligence suggest it may be a modified version of the older RS-26 “Rubezh” missile. Known for its potential to carry nuclear warheads, the Oreshnik was used with a non-nuclear payload in this instance. Military experts noted that while the missile reached speeds over Mach 11, hypersonic velocities are typical for all medium-range ballistic missiles and do not represent a groundbreaking capability.
On Friday, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported that the missile was likely just part of the “Kedr” missile complex, a platform Russia first tested in October 2023. The missile was equipped with six warheads, each with six submunitions, and covered 1,200 kilometers in 15 minutes.
A Strategic Warning
Putin framed the missile’s deployment as a response to Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk regions, which were carried out with U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles. The Russian president warned that Western air defense systems are powerless to intercept the Oreshnik and hinted at possible strikes on NATO territories supporting Ukraine’s military operations.
“We are ready for any developments. If anyone still doubts this, they shouldn’t. There will always be a response.” Putin said, signaling a broader warning to Kyiv’s Western allies.
Global Concerns Over Escalation
The missile launch comes amid heightened tensions, with Russia deploying nearly 60,000 troops to the Kursk region, including North Korean reinforcements, in what appears to be a bid to bolster its territorial defenses. North Korea reportedly received oil and anti-aircraft missiles from Russia in exchange for its military support.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack as an “obvious and serious escalation in the scale and brutality of this war,” He warned that the lack of a strong global reaction could embolden Moscow to push further.
Experts agree the Oreshnik’s use is more of a political signal than a game-changing military development. NATO and U.S. officials downplayed its strategic impact, emphasizing continued support for Ukraine. “this capability will neither change the course of the conflict nor deter NATO allies from supporting Ukraine,” a NATO spokesperson said.
Broader Implications
The launch coincides with Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, which lowers the threshold for nuclear weapon use, further stoking fears of escalation. However, analysts caution against overreacting, emphasizing that Russia’s leadership is unlikely to risk its regime by initiating a nuclear conflict.
“The Russian leadership is not suicidal. The moment they start going a bit too far in nuclear escalation… this will be the end for the Russian regime.” said Mathieu Boulègue, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
As the war reaches what Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk calls a “decisive phase,” the world watches closely for how this latest escalation could shape the conflict. With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s administration set to take office in January, the course of Western support for Ukraine may soon face critical adjustments.
