Dr.. Yahya Al-Aridi
It is difficult for Israeli revenge after the violation and humiliation to which Israel was subjected to be within the limits of any expectations. Rather, it will exceed these expectations beyond our imagination. Even America is struck by an unprecedented shock that pushes decision makers to unanimously support the decision to war as a way out or as an atonement for what appears to be a fatal strategic deficiency. It is heading for a bloody excision operation
The most difficult thing is to jump over the “Al-Aqsa Flood.” It has been portrayed as an existential threat to Israel, which can only be treated by eradicating – not only Hamas, but also its incubator. Here, the old plans of “deportation” are being revived, and the idea of an “alternative homeland,” or any homeland, or even a shelter for those who remain alive, are emerging strongly. What is more dangerous is that this is intended to be done by the will of the Arabs and the world, or against their will
The consequences of the Al-Aqsa flood reveal Netanyahu’s confusion, and exacerbate the accusations resulting from a servile identification with functional systems headed by Iran. He is the one who opened the way for a breach to occur at this unprecedented cost. It cannot be passed on to Israelis by Netanyahu or anyone else. A cost like this violates the rules of engagement, and goes beyond a war with armies. The losses are officers and elite units, and the number is in the dozens and perhaps in the hundreds.
Every passing day reveals a loss of prestige, and the absence of initiative, which always gave Israel a more competitive position. Among the immediate consequences, one can mention a reverse Israeli exodus; damage to investments; scattered energy maps; and eroding popular support for normalization; with the most dangerous of all being the growing capabilities of Hamas, the most critical link in that system, which threatens the depths of Israel, let alone the capabilities of the Iranians and Hezbollah if they participate?!
Netanyahu will not survive today unless he turns into another Sharon hawk. The scale of the breach in the Gaza operation is staggering, and constitutes a serious strategic threat. These are variables with very high strategic value. This is what prompted those concerned to say that this moment, with the world being behind Israel, constitutes the best moment for targeting the Iranian nuclear project and the Hezbollah leadership.
On the other hand, how can the energy maps be unfolded tomorrow without a radical change in the region and the dismantling of the Iranian regime with its arms? How can normalization have a chance in light of its popular faltering in light of the Iranian breaching?
With the shift of the weight of the American administration to Tel Aviv, which was seen as an Israeli frightened boy awaiting orders from Tel Aviv. In light of the global mobilization that makes the world stand on tiptoe, there are those who believe that even bulldozing the Palestinians from Gaza to the North Pole will not change the reality of a functional system that has performed its mission maliciously. In this context, Trump’s speech had great weight in Washington, and had an echo in Israel, where he held Netanyahu responsible in accordance with his previous professional identification. All of this was embarrassing, dangerous, and pushing in one direction.
Observers confirm that the new changes will not only serve Israel strategically, but this time they will serve major goals for Washington, because the upcoming arrangement is outside the functional Iran et al system. It will greatly limit the Chinese Belt and Road path, and will place Putinism at the lowest level of global and regional strategic influence. It will strengthen lost confidence with the Gulf, specifically Saudi Arabia, with all its weight, economy, and markets. It will restore America as an undisputed first player or even a partner. Perhaps it brings back to mind the frequently repeated saying that this century is an American century par excellence. Perhaps more accurately, it is an Israeli century with an American title. It is possibly now the turn of the Israeli strategic mind.
It will not be surprising that whoever aligns himself with this strategy will guarantee the White House and great economic prosperity to come. What may confirm this is that the most important analysts in Washington are mostly Jews from the right; especially with an existential dimension that threatens Israel is the additional driving force. All of this is driven by ideological, existential, economic and political motives
Regarding the degree to which the spectrum of what happened in Gaza affected the Russia, it was no secret that the Russian involvement – even if its support was minimal – it constitutes a political cover, and extends to higher levels of military cooperation and perhaps information and some cyber support, which contributed to confusing the Israeli army during and after. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. This indicates that we will soon witness quick Ukrainian victories with the support of Israeli satellites, information, and more useful weapons against the Russians. This is to force them to lift the cover on Iran and the Assad regime first, and to drag the tails of disappointment from Ukraine towards Moscow next.
Russia must have invested in the war to divert attention from its situation in Ukraine, and it is impossible for it to be far from the scenes of what happened. America’s use of its veto to prevent stopping the war must have pleased the Russians, who wish America to be involved in committing war crimes. But the greatest Russian fear remains that America will undermine Iran’s influence in the region. Here the magic will turn against the Russian magician. Hence, if the American plan includes overthrowing the Assad regime, it will succeed in achieving three goals simultaneously: the Russians’ loss of Syria and the Mediterranean, ending the Iranian presence in Syria, and the end of the Assad regime. In the end, Russia must collect its disappointments failures in Ukraine and retreat for a long time.
